Oldmans Pick For Sunday 12/19/04

[oldmanTED]

Significant difference between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Some of the key statistics show Seattle yielding 4.4 ypc rushing, 6.6 ypp passing, 5.3 ypp overall and 39.9% third down efficiency. Meanwhile New York is allowing a stout 3.7 ypc rushing, 6.6 ypp passing, 4.8 ypp overall and 36.7% third down efficiency. True that the Jets loss of DE John Abraham is significant but the Seahawks have been decimated defensively in all areas including the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary. Last week, the Jets without Abraham actually held Pittsburgh on the road to a total of 262 yards while gaining 296 yards and completing 53% third down efficiency against a very sound defense while holding the Steelers to 42% on third downs. Bettis and Staley did chalk up good ypc averages but don't expect the Seahawks offensive line to open holes quite as easily for Alexander. The Jets defense held the Steeler passing game to 47.4% completions for 144 while offensively putting up 189 yards on 54.8% completions, once again, on the road. Meanwhile, the Seahawks gave up 4.5 ypc against the Vikings and 270 yards in the air on 63.6% completions to Culpepper. The Seattle offense did put up good numbers both on the ground and in the air, but against a very porous Minnesota defense. They will not face such a defense this week. Jets currently stand at 9-4 in the tough AFC East and battling to hold on to the top wild card spot while the Seahawks stand at 7-6 and leading a very weak NFC West Division. Jets consistently holding the scoring of their opponents down while the Seahawks are doing the exact opposite as their defensive injuries are exploited. In a hostile environment, on the road in the east coast, after returning from playing indoors in the midwest, and with rain a possibility, feeling here is that the Seahawks defensive and even their offensive inconsistencies will be taken advantage of by a Jets team playing tough defensively and able to run the ball with Martin as well as throw consistently with Pennington. Hence,

Overall Unit Record YTD: (41.0-31.9-1)(+9.10) 3*(0-1)(-3.30) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(37-26-1)(+8.40)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (39-27-1) 59.09%
NFL Record YTD: (11-4)(+5.40)
NCAAF Record YTD: (28-23-1)(+3.70)

1* New York Jets -6 (Free Half Point)

Plays rated 1*-3*

Good Luck All.

 

[Mr.Leisure]

i put them in a 2-team teaserties win)
jets+.5
panthers +10

good luck on are plays!

 

[moneymario]

AHHH TED,

Good luck, Nice to see I took the JETS - 6 in my KNOCKOUT pool worth a grand

Mario

 

[mj23]

OMT it seems to me that Pennington has not been that sharp with his passes since the injury do you believe the Jets will beat them with the run?

 

[oldmanTED]

Mr. Leisure:

Best of luck with your teaser.

Mario:

Best of luck with your knockout pool. Glad to see you chose the Jets.

mj23:

I fully expect the Jets to establish the run first as Martin should have a good solid day running against the decimated Seahawk defense. But, I also expect Pennington, regardless of the shoulder injury, to have success using play action as well as straight drops to complete passes. Really feel that the Seahawks defense can be shredded in this match-up while the offense will be inconsistent due to the strength of the Jets defense. This should ultimately separate the two teams and thus the scoring gap should widen as the game progresses.

 

[winbet]

Best of luck Ted and congrats on a ballsy Washington play.

 

[mhk]

Like the pick and gl omt..

 

[mj23]

Thanks OMT and gl i will be with you on the JETS !!

 

[thecruncher]

OMT, your picks are consistently aligned with the value that my spreadsheet handicapping produces, and your nice write-up of this week's pick tells the same story again, the Jets are my favorite side this week as well. The Jets have the advantage in practically every category and should win by 10+. GL to us and all those on the Jets!

 

[SportSavant]

seems like Pinny likes the Jets aswell as they are shading that side quite heavy!

 

[GREENHEAD]

Thanks TED-Hope all is well.Happy Holidays-GREENHEAD

 

[ctgiant]

ted...once again,an outstanding job capping this game,it went exactly as you said...your one of the best ted...thank you ...and best wishes to you and your loved ones this holiday season

 

[thecruncher]

arty:

 

[mj23]

OMT thanks for the pick you took me off SEattle and put me on the Jets!!! I will repay someday!! thx again

 

[moseyesly]

Nice pick O.M.T. Congrats!arty: :drink:

 

[SpaciousK]

Ted, outstanding call, as usual.

What people fail to understand is that the majotity of NFL teams are completely unaccustomed to the 3-4 defense, and when they look on their schedule and see that next week's opponent runs a 3-4, they only have three real days to prepare the offense for it. I think we all can agree, the Patriots have won their Super Bowls by way of unpredictability, both on offense and defense. And the championships have come after the 3-4 was instilled.

Bottom line, the 3-4 defense will be the way to go in the immediate future. That is until too many coaches catch on and it becomes passe', requiring teams to actually practice against it routinely. Til then, keep reaping the benefits.

 

[SpaciousK]

Heh... I just realized, since my last post, that the Jets don't even run a 3-4. You must pardon me, for I'm an idiot. However, I do believe my theorem still stands.

Again, Congratulations.